It is 2024, and as January has come and gone, the upcoming presidential election has taken the spotlight. Primaries and caucuses have already occurred in a number of states and the nominees of the two major parties will likely be incumbent President Joseph R. Biden, aged 81, for the Democrats and former President Donald J. Trump, aged 77, for the Republicans. Either of these two politicians, if elected, will be the oldest man inaugurated as President in American history, making 2024 the third election in a row where this record will have been broken. Both candidates remain highly unpopular with the American public according to polling averages compiled by Project 538, a website which compiles polls from a diverse list of public opinion polling organizations: only 39.8% and 42.6% of Americans hold favorable opinions of Biden and Trump, respectively. It is clear that most Americans don’t want a rematch of these two men, yet both will likely be their party’s nominee. As the primaries and caucuses continue to occur in the coming month — such as Super Tuesday on March 5th, when 14 states including California, Texas, North Carolina, and Virginia will hold their primaries — the battle for the nation’s highest office will begin to heat up.
This presidential election will be the most irregular in American history. One candidate, former President Donald Trump, remains under indictment for 91 charges: 34 of them in New York State, 13 in the State of Georgia, and 44 of them in two separate federal cases. In addition to these legal proceedings, critics of former President Donald Trump often attack him for his refusal to concede the 2020 election and cite his alleged instigation of the January 6th riot as reason why he should not be reelected. Furthermore, current President Joe Biden faces an impeachment inquiry for his family’s business dealings with foreign nations while he was vice president, along with concerns about his age and mental acuity. Many critics of Joe Biden also point to how his administration handled the withdrawal from Afghanistan and the 40 year high in inflation.
This election is further complicated by the presence of a viable 3rd-party candidate: Environmental lawyer and activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. This member of the Kennedy political dynasty has a favorability rating of 52%, according to a recent Gallup poll. He has actually consistently polled as the most favored candidate in the race. Kennedy has received the backing of both Democratic and Republican voters as his platform combines progressive ideals such as environmentalism and free child care, and conservative ideals such as stronger border security. Kennedy’s campaign embraces centrism between two polar opposites and represents an attack on establishment politics. But without the backing of a major political party, his chances of winning the white house remain low. Regardless, Kennedy’s ability to draw voters from both political parties who are dissatisfied with the polarization of our nation will likely influence the outcome of the election, depending on whether he siphons off more potential Biden or Trump voters.
At the time of writing, Donald Trump remains the front runner in this election. An average of polls of the two major party candidates by RealClearPolitics, a politically balanced news site and polling data aggregator often cited by CNN, Fox News, and NY Times, puts the former president at 46.7% and the incumbent president at 44.6%. Furthermore, RealClearPolitics compiled odds on the 2024 presidential election winner placing Donald Trump at a 44% probability compared to Joe Biden at a 33.3% probability. At the time of writing, it is more likely than not that Mr. Trump will be the next president of the United States. This raises an important question: Will the criminal charges against Mr. Trump be dropped if he wins the election?
I believe that the criminal charges against Donald Trump should be dropped immediately if he is elected president again in 2024. The potential political chaos that prosecuting a sitting president would cause threatens national security and democratic institutions. While there is no mention in our constitution of whether a sitting president can be indicted or convicted of a crime, traditionally it has been the Department of Justice’s policy for over 50 years not to indict a sitting president. Since Donald Trump has been indicted of crimes after his first term as president, it is unclear what might happen if he is elected again. The possibility of Trump being forced to stand trial while serving as president of the United States places the country at risk of having a leader who cannot effectively execute his duties. For example, he may be unable to respond to a terrorist attack or threats from other nations. Continuing to prosecute Trump during his term could lead to the president being jailed while he is still in office. Since there is nothing in the Constitution that prevents a president from serving while imprisoned, this scenario could mean our nation would effectively have no leader. This may seem far-fetched, but the imprisonment of the sitting leader of a nation sets a dangerous precedent for the future, which deserves our attention. Regardless of whether former President Trump is guilty of the crimes he has been charged with, I believe that this next election should serve as a referendum on whether he is guilty or innocent of these crimes. If Donald Trump loses this next election, however, I believe he is subject to trial, but continuing to prosecute him if he is elected president threatens the entire nation.
Many of our school’s seniors, and even some of our juniors, will be able to vote in this next election. It is important that we all understand the importance of the outcome of this presidential election and the effects it will have on the future of our nation. A vote for Donald Trump is essentially a vote for his innocence and of rejection for Joe Biden’s presidency. A vote for Joe Biden is a vote for Donald Trump to have his day in court and for a continuation of these last four years of governance. Alternatively, a vote for RFK Jr. is a vote for something completely different: the rejection of the two party system and its stranglehold on this country. There is no such thing as the right choice, and everyone should be able to support their candidate without fear of mistreatment or ostracism by others. Democracy is a gift we often take for granted, yet it is something we should cherish. For these reasons, I encourage our student body to remain politically aware because we will soon be the voters and, eventually, the candidates, making the decisions that shape the fate of our nation.