It has been three months since election day—three months since Americans spoke, choosing former Republican President Donald Trump over current Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris. It has also been three months since Harris conceded the race, which is more than can be said about the 2020 election. Trump received 312 electoral votes and 49.9% of the popular vote, just short of a majority, while Harris garnered 226 electoral votes and 48.4% of the popular vote. Additionally, of the seven fiercely contested battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—Trump ran a clean sweep. This marks the first time in his three campaigns that Trump won the popular vote and the first time a Republican has carried it since President George Bush’s reelection in ‘04. While the president and many of his supporters would like to call this “a landslide victory,” that couldn’t be further from the truth; LBJ’s win in 1964 and Reagan’s in 1984—when both presidents won reelection with 486 and 525 electoral votes, respectively—were real landslides, not this.
The results beg many questions: What went right for Trump? What could he have done better? Why did Kamala Harris underperform so drastically? What made the Democrats misjudge this race so catastrophically? And finally, the most interesting question: What trends in the American electorate emerged this election?
To answer our first question—what went right for Trump?—let’s look back to the beginning of his campaign. Things did not get off to a great start. Announced in the wake of the GOP’s disappointing performance in the 2022 midterms, his campaign was met with a tepid response; many blame his endorsement of weak congressional candidates for the defeat. Furthermore, he was no longer the firebrand political outsider everyone remembered from 2015: He looked older, more tired. For the next six months, Trump slogged around the country, half-heartedly running a primary campaign while facing new legal troubles in New York and D.C. But in this early stage of the race, Trump’s liabilities—his criminal and civil cases—actually proved to be his strengths. By painting himself a victim of a politicized justice department, Trump energized his base, raised millions for his campaign and legal defense funds, and cruised to victory in the primaries.
Throughout the spring, Trump retained a slight edge in the polls over President Biden—whose own campaign we will discuss in more detail later. There are many valid reasons why Trump was suddenly polling ahead of the man that had displaced him from office two years before: high grocery and gas prices, the Biden Administration’s questionable foreign policies, and, of course, a wide-open southern border. But since Trump was still facing three pending criminal cases, two civil judgements, and a felony conviction—something far less appealing to independent voters in the general election than his MAGA base in the primaries—the race remained tight.
Cementing Trump’s lead required a catalyst, and the June 27 presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden was just that. As the debate went on, my laughter at the president’s gaffes—“we finally beat Medicare”—turned to sadness for a man who was clearly in decline. Though Trump consistently went off topic and spouted myriad lies, it didn’t matter; it was over for President Biden, and Trump’s disappointing performance was overshadowed.
In July, Trump’s campaign was handed another political boost in the form of a bullet to the ear. The tragic events in Butler, Pennsylvania, which left two dead—a rally goer and the shooter himself—came but millimeters from changing the course of American history. I must admit, Trump’s defiant fist in the face of near destruction was truly inspiring—it spawned a photo for the ages.
The final piece of good luck Trump got was with his criminal cases. While his New York trial ended with a guilty verdict last May, none of the other cases made it to trial before election day: Special Counsel Jack Smith’s mishandling-documents case was dismissed last July, his overturning the 2020 election case was delayed in anticipation of the Supreme Court’s ruling on presidential immunity, and Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis’ racketeering case in Georgia was hampered by the exposition of a romantic relationship she’d had with the case’s special prosecutor. Additionally, Trump’s sentencing in New York was repeatedly pushed back throughout the summer and fall, finally taking place on January 10 with an unconditional release. This streak of delays and dismissals allowed the former president to take his legal troubles out of the spotlight during the final months of the campaign.
Now that we’ve recounted Trump’s incredible streak of good luck, it’s time to see how close he came to blowing it. This race—from the very beginning—was Trump’s to lose, and he came very close to doing so. While Trump was more restrained in this campaign than in his prior two—which isn’t saying much—the former president still constantly put his foot in his mouth. From declaring that illegal migrants are “poisoning the blood of our country,” to saying his political opponents “live like vermin,” Trump handed the Democrats ammunition for Hitler comparisons.
Additionally, Trump’s choice of running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance, was a massive stumble. Vance, a white man from a safely red state, brought very little to the ticket. He was, however, shockingly effective at isolating women voters with his comments about abortion and the infamous “childless cat ladies.” And while Vance did deliver a solid vice-presidential debate performance against Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, in my opinion, if Trump had chosen a woman, minority, or resident of a swing state instead, the race would have been lights out.
From late June to mid-July of last year, Donald Trump was on a roll. After watching his opponent self-destruct on live TV and surviving a bullet to the head, he had the chance to cap off the month on a high note with his speech at the RNC. Instead of seeking to unify the country against political violence, Trump squandered the moment by delivering a rambling 90-minute speech where he, among other things, praised “the late great Hannibal Lecter.” Three short days later, Biden would be out, and Harris would have all the momentum of the Democratic Party behind her.
Lastly, Trump’s performance in his debate against Kamala Harris certainly didn’t help him secure the win. In similar fashion to the June debate, Trump dodged most of the questions, but unlike the first one, he was now the only old man struggling to stay on topic—he was in the spotlight. Harris did a masterful job at getting under the former president’s skin; she capitalized on sore spots—from the size of his rallies and his criminal sentencing—and his readiness to self-sabotage—“they’re eating the cats!” In the aftermath of this disastrous debate, Harris reached her highest lead over Trump in the polls: 2.1 points nationally. In spite of this major setback, the former president was able to claw his way back over the next 55 days.
Now, we must turn to the Democrats: what made them misjudge this race so catastrophically? While Joe Biden’s term as president got off to a solid start in early 2021 with the American Rescue Plan and COVID-19 vaccine rollout, it hit an inflection point that August: the withdrawal from Afghanistan. This operation was nothing short of a disaster: Images of Afghan citizens running on runways and clinging to military transport aircrafts were broadcasted incessantly. Soon after, there was the August 26 suicide bombing at Kabul’s airport, Hamid Karzai International, which killed 183 people, including 13 US service members. Prior to the withdrawal, Biden enjoyed a net positive approval rating; afterwards, he would never again see it crack 50%.
The rest of Joe Biden’s presidency came to be defined by two crises: inflation and the border. Coming out of the pandemic, a perfect storm of supply chain issues, rising energy prices, and high consumer demand fueled by government stimulus triggered a surge in inflation. The consumer price index (CPI) ballooned from 1.4% in January 2021 to 9.1% in June 2022. Despite having very little control over inflation, many held Biden responsible, and Trump harnessed this resentment.
On the issue of the border crisis, the former president deserves considerably more blame. In his first 100 days, Biden reversed 10 of Trump’s executive orders on immigration, halting construction of the border wall, stopping deportations, and reversing the “Muslim ban.” This relaxed border policy emboldened millions to flood the southern border, which the Biden Administration did extremely little to address until mid-2023. There have been more than eight million encounters at the southern border since President Biden took office—an enormous source of ammunition for Trump and the GOP.
In 2020, Biden ran as a transition candidate with the singular aim of defeating Donald Trump and beginning the “return to normalcy.” Americans assumed the 78-year-old would be a one-term president—Biden disagreed. The president’s reluctance to step aside allowed him to coast through ‘22 and the beginning of ‘23 without any Democrat challenging him. Thus, when Biden announced his bid for reelection on April 25, 2023, he secured the nomination virtually unopposed despite uneasiness about his age and mental acuity.
From this point on, many mistakes were made. First, the Democrats miscalculated by throwing Biden into a debate with Trump on live TV. Those 24 days between Biden’s catastrophic debate and him finally seeing the writing on the wall were squandered—they had failed to Weekend at Bernie’s their way to the finish line, letting Trump run away further with the race. When Biden finally dropped out on July 21, the immediate rallying behind Kamala Harris ended any hopes of an open primary: She clinched the nomination in a single day.
It’s admittedly ironic that the Democrats—the party that loves to talk about democracy—denied their voters the right to choose whom their presidential candidate should be. Kamala Harris was practically handed the nomination without ever receiving a primary vote. This was an incredible error: It made the party look shady, denied its voters the opportunity to choose their candidate, and propped up an arguably less-than-ideal nominee. But regardless of whether it was the right call—from a moral, ethical, or strategic standpoint—on July 22, Harris was effectively the Democratic nominee for president.
Kamala Harris’ ascent was rapid—it caught many off guard. After all, Harris had the lowest approval rating of any vice president in modern history—37% at the beginning of July. Her high-profile role as Biden’s “border czar” was likely a large contributor to her unpopularity, whether or not she actually held this position. However, the moment Harris became nominee, these reservations appeared to vanish. The vice president raised $81 million in the first 24 hours of her campaign—the largest amount in American history—and by the end of July, her approval rating had already risen to 42%.
Despite the immediate hype surrounding her campaign, Harris was fighting an uphill battle against Trump. Her digital strategies—“Kamala IS brat” and falling out of coconut trees—succeeded in going viral, but they weren’t the proper foundation for a presidential campaign. Instead of attempting to build a platform that differed from Biden’s in any way, Harris chose to spend the first month of her campaign running on vibes. The vice president went a mind-boggling 39 days—July 21 to August 29—without giving an interview, choosing to rely on highly controlled campaign events instead. And while Harris did erode Trump’s lead in national polls by early August, her inability to define and solidify her campaign would come back to bite her that fall.
So, why did Kamala Harris lose so badly? Besides the obvious reasons—inflation and immigration—there were many smaller ones. It would be thoughtless to discount the role her sex and race played. The sad fact is that millions of Americans won’t vote a black woman for president—whether they admit it or not. Trump used this to his advantage, attacking Harris’ race by commenting about how she “happened to turn black.” This predictably sowed doubt about her identity—mimicking the ‘birtherism’ Trump had pushed over a decade before—and was a reminder to Americans that Harris was ‘the other.’ But let’s be clear: Harris did not lose this election just because she is a black woman.
A key error Harris made in her campaign was abandoning the liberal wing of the Democratic Party. While some—like Bill Maher—would argue it was “wokeness” that damaged Harris, the exact opposite is the case. The vice president overcompensated for the extremely liberal platform she ran on in 2020—“Medicare for All,” decriminalizing border crossings, and banning fracking—by shifting too far right. Her environmental platform—a big draw for younger voters—flipped this election to support fracking. Her healthcare plan—while infinitely better than Trump’s “concepts of a plan”—was simply a continuation of the Affordable Care Act. And her immigration policy went from that of a border dove to that of a border hawk—supporting the allocation of funds for Trump’s wall. To many liberal Democrats, Harris started to sound a lot like Trump—not giving them enough of a reason to come out and support her on election day.
But in the end, this race was settled long before Kamala Harris entered it. It was $4.80 for a dozen eggs, $5.60 for a pound of beef, and $5 for a gallon of gas that sent Trump back to the White House. The vice president failed to realize that campaigning on “protecting democracy” would not win her the rust belt, no matter how often they brought Liz Cheney on stage. Moreover, this race—more so than any other in recent memory—showed cracks forming in the Democratic coalition. While African Americans stayed relatively strong for Harris—with 86% support—Latinos shifted 13 points towards Trump. The former president won Latino men 54% to 44%—an incredible jump from 36% in 2020. Clearly economic issues were far more important to Latinos than Trump’s rhetoric.
And now, the final—and most interesting—question: How has 2024 changed the face of the American electorate? Of course, the obvious one was that Trump dominated. After all, Harris didn’t flip a single county blue—a first for a presidential candidate since Herbert Hoover’s reelection bid against FDR in 1932. But if we dive deep into the results—beyond the battleground states—what do we find?
Let’s begin with my home state, New York, and its neighbor to the south, New Jersey. After this election, the Empire State’s categorization as solidly blue may no longer be appropriate. New York swung 10.7 points towards Trump—the most of any state in the nation—with Harris winning it by 12.4 points, a narrower margin of victory than in the once fierce battleground state of Florida. And while New York’s move was drastic, New Jersey’s was even more astonishing. The Garden State shifted 10.02 points towards Trump, with Harris winning it by a mere 5.9 points. For comparison, Trump won Arizona—one of the big seven battleground states—by a very similar margin of 5.53 points. So, while New York’s journey right is in an early stage, New Jersey’s is much further along, and I expect the state to get more attention in 2028.
Next, we have resilient Washington state. While so many solid blue states yielded to Trump, the Evergreen State stayed strong, bending by a minuscule 0.98 points. While this was still an improvement for Trump, in an election where the average state moved 3.9 points to the right, 0.98 looks very impressive. So, why was Washington so resilient? To put it simply, Trump’s populist rhetoric and social conservatism doesn’t fare well with Washington’s growing secular, suburban, and highly-educated population. I expect this part of the blue wall to stay intact—something that can’t be said for Washington’s southern neighbors.
What do Illinois, Louisiana, and Mississippi have in common? Besides having above-average African American populations—not very much. Nevertheless, these three states share one very important distinction: They are the only states where Kamala Harris received fewer votes than Hillary Clinton. In Louisiana and Mississippi, this was a small decline—13,284 and 18,463 votes, respectively. However, in Illinois, the drop was much more pronounced: Harris lost 27,866 voters while Trump gained 303,064. Trump’s ascent in Illinois makes sense; outside of Chicago, the state greatly resembles its neighbor Indiana, which Trump just won by 19 points. So as Chicago’s population continues to steadily decline and Illinois’ rural regions shift further to the right, we might have a new battleground state in the rust belt.
Colorado is a ray of sunshine for the Democratic Party. Harris just won the state by 11 points. From 2016 to 2024, the average state moved 0.7 points to the right—Colorado shifted a whopping 6 points to left. But this fact is unsurprising when you consider the path the Centennial State has taken over the last half-century: Colorado shaken off its rural Republican roots and embraced metropolitanism. It was the first state to legalize marijuana and has seen rapid urban growth and an influx of highly educated workers—extremely favorable to the Democrats. The largely Republican rural residents are a declining portion of the voter base, and the state will likely continue to turn a deeper blue.
Analyze the 2020 election results state by state, and Wyoming will quickly stand out. The least populated state in the nation is also the most Republican—69.9% of its residents casted votes for Donald Trump, just beating West Virginia’s 68.6%. And while this number is undoubtedly impressive, it was just short of a major milestone: the 70% mark. Throughout the fall, I pondered this question: Would Trump crack 70% in the Cowboy State this time around? Considering that the former president only needed to win over 0.06% of Wyoming voters—or about 166 people—this seemed all but a certainty. On election day, Trump didn’t just crack 70%. When all was said and done, the former president received 192,663 of the 269,048 votes cast—or 71.6%.
And last—but certainly not least— the two lightest states in the nation: Wisconsin, the lightest red, and my soon-to-be home state, New Hampshire, the lightest blue. The Badger State, boasts the distinction of having the closest race of the presidential election; Trump won Wisconsin by 29,397 votes—just 0.86 points. Conversely, Harris won the Granite State by 22,965 votes—a more comfortable margin of 2.72 points. It was predictable that New Hampshire would be the lightest blue state in the case of a battleground sweep by Trump, but Wisconsin’s result was a greater surprise. Polling and precedent had both indicated that Michigan would have the closer race. After all, in 2016, Trump won the state by 10,704 votes—0.23 points—an even smaller margin than Biden’s infamous 11,780 vote win in Georgia. In 2020, Michigan once again leaned closer to the left than either Wisconsin or Pennsylvania, going to Biden by 2.8 points. So in a race as tight as the one between Trump and Harris this year, Michigan was projected to be the most likely battleground state victory for the vice president. Possible reasons for the former Vice President’s considerable loss are a poor showing in Detroit, loss of support from Michigan’s sizable Arab American population, and her lack of appeal to blue collar workers. But regardless of why Harris lost Michigan, going forward, Wisconsin might just be the most polarized state in the nation.
There are two morals to this story: The American people are quick to forgive and forget, and the Democrats can no longer take their base for granted. The night before the election, I penned that ‘if the man who left office in disgrace four years ago can win back the presidency as we predict, it will no doubt be the greatest political comeback in American History.’ Donald Trump did exactly that—in even swifter fashion than I predicted. There is no doubt that the second Trump Administration will be more organized than the first, but there is also no doubt that Trump himself will be more unhinged than 4 years ago—he no longer must hide it to win reelection. It’s going to be an extremely turbulent four years, ending either in immense catastrophe or victory. My only advice is to buckle in and prepare for a wild ride.